Carmel Valley San Diego real estate is prized for its convenient location, excellent schools, nearby amenities and newer construction homes. Although people from all backgrounds and walks of life call it home, Carmel Valley is particularly popular with younger families with children, in large part due to the neighborhood’s well regarded schools. Carmel Valley is east of Torrey Pines State Park and the 5 freeway, and generally south of Rancho Santa Fe. It is a San Diego neighborhood that has seen both new development and significant appreciation in prices. Whether you are considering buying or selling a home in Carmel Valley, this article will delve into some useful metrics for clear insight into Carmel Valley San Diego real estate market conditions. All the stats and graphs you will find here are updated daily to deliver the most timely real estate market information to you.
Carmel Valley is primarily comprised of single family detached homes, however it does have some condos and townhomes as well. Home prices tend to be more uniform in specific developments since many of the neighboring homes have similar or exactly the same build dates, sizes and floor plans. Let’s dive into Carmel Valley as I detail home prices, and some of the supply and demand statistics that define the real estate market here.
Carmel Valley San Diego Real Estate Home Prices
As you evaluate Carmel Valley San Diego real estate, one key stat is the value of homes in the area. For buyers, information on average and median home sales prices can provide a rough gauge on the affordability of Carmel Valley San Diego real estate vs San Diego home prices in other neighborhoods. For sellers, the average price per square foot can provide a rough range on what they might expect to sell for.
Ideally, sellers will want a detailed comparative market analysis by an experienced Carmel Valley real estate agent. That analysis should look at homes most comparable to yours, vs the more general statistics seen here. The average and median home price along with price per square foot information are broken down into two categories: 1) single family detached homes, and, 2) attached homes including townhomes and condos.
Carmel Valley – Average Home Price
Carmel Valley – Median Home Price
Carmel Valley – Average Price Per Square Foot
Carmel Valley San Diego Real Estate – Home Supply
Many Carmel Valley San Diego real estate investments have faired well over the long term. Many longtime homeowners in Carmel Valley have experienced substantial appreciation in home values over the decades. Despite the favorable track record historically, market conditions can and do vary. One key component of determining the type of market we are currently seeing in Carmel Valley San Diego real estate is the level of supply. Taking a look at both the number of active listings along with the inventory (measured in months) provides insight into the type of market prevailing now.
The months of inventory charted here is also known as the absorption rate. Our data firm defines this as: “Active Listings at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly Closed Sales for the last 12 months.” In essence, if there were no more new listings, the inventory level would describe how many months it would take for existing demand to purchase all the remaining listings.
Although the number varies, some economists will use a six month threshold for evaluating housing supply. Anything shorter than six months of inventory is viewed as a seller’s market. Anything greater than six months is seen as a buyer’s market. For some context, the last 15-20 years has had significant variation in inventory levels. We have seen inventory spike to over nine months in 2007-2011 during the great recession, and dip to unheard of lows of less than one month in the early part of 2021! With this six month threshold equating to a “healthy” mix of buyers and sellers, Carmel Valley and much of San Diego have spent the majority of recent years in seller’s market territory.
Carmel Valley – Number of Active Listing
Carmel Valley – Inventory
Carmel Valley San Diego Real Estate – Market Time and Pending Sales
With tight inventory more commonplace, it is not surprising that the time on market goes down when inventory is low. When you combine low inventory with high demand like we’ve seen in late 2020 and early 2021, some stunningly short market times can result. In times of higher inventory and/or reduced demand, market times tend to increase. The Active Market time you see in the graph below is defined as the median number of days between when a property is listed in Carmel Valley and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
Carmel Valley – Median Active Market Time
Real estate stats often focus on closed sales, which are vital from many perspectives. Pending sales, as shown here, are simply a count of the properties on which contracts have been accepted in a given month. These pending sales can sometimes provide insight into where a market is right now, and where it might be headed in the near future.
Carmel Valley San Diego Real Estate – Pending Sales
This article on Carmel Valley is part of a series focusing on statistics and data from specific San Diego neighborhoods. If you would like to review more general market information, please visit my article on the broader San Diego real estate market. I am also happy to provide more insights into your specific San Diego neighborhood’s real estate market upon request.
If you or someone you know might be buying or selling real estate in San Diego, regardless of location or price point, please let me know. I can also assist in connecting buyers and sellers outside San Diego with outstanding Sotheby’s International Realty agents via our 1000+ offices in over 75 countries. For a sense of the level of service I provide, please take a moment to read some of my recent client reviews. Please don’t hesitate to call, text, chat or email me with any real estate questions or to schedule a no-obligation consultation.
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